Modeling COVID-19 Infection Rates by Regime-Switching Unobserved Components Models
The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by a recurring sequence of peaks ASSAULT GREEN APPLE and troughs.This article proposes a regime-switching unobserved components (UC) approach to model the trend of COVID-19 infections as a function of this ebb and flow pattern.Estimated regime probabilities indicate the prevalence of either an infection up- or